A question asked daily: how many French people are below the proposed quota of 9 t/year in the first year.

Scientists are working on this, Lucas Chancel has just updated and developed the study cited below on climate inequalities around the world:

Etude Lucas Chancel avec data

We will retain two graphs for France and Europe:

The average values for France and Europe are therefore quite similar *, especially for the 50% of people with the lowest income. Note that the average carbon footprint of 8.7 is a bit lower than values from Government. Both for France and European union, 65% of people are lower than the average, due to high footprint from 10% richest (whose footprint is also declining faster than the others, falling by more than 5t / p in 30 years) .


(*) these are the average values which are similar for Europe, but large disparities remain between Germans or Luxemburgers and Romanians or Slovaks, making it impossible to pool the progressive cap and requiring European coordination as proposed by www.cequic.eu



To answer the question, we hypothesize that 65% of the French population would be below 9 t / year / person after reading this brilliant study. 61% would be below the second year quota and 55% would be below the 3rd year quota ...


Thoughts on climate change: out of 1,000 young French people, how many consider that:

· People have not taken care of the planet in their own hands: 77%

· The future is scary: 74%

· Humanity is doomed: 48%

· Fewer opportunities than parents: 61%

· Most liked things will be destroyed: 45%

· The security of family life will be threatened: 50%

· I hesitate to have children: 37%

It can be compared to the 9 other countries studied by Caroline Hickman's team in seven universities.

Caroline Hickman study published in Lancet Planetary Health on September 7, 2021

IPCC report of August 9, 2021

An exceptional figure (page 1.212 under number 1.29) indicates the greenhouse gases in the 5 most commonly used scenarios (CO2 in blue, methane in light gray and nitrous oxide in dark gray). The SSP5-8.5 scenario called "doing nothing" leads to a peak of CO2 in 2200 to 2100 ppm (5 times more than today, a rate for which NASA claims that we are losing 40% of our capacity).
The SSP1-1.9 scenario (that of the carbon account) shows a return to the concentration of 2000 from 2150, having gone through more than 500ppm in around 2040.

The supply chain must take carbon content into account according to the rating agency ECOVADIS, which is kicking in the anthill of European industrial greenwashing arrangements:

Read the Synthesis by Novethic (July 12, 2021)

A two-minute film to be broadcast, proposed by Nicolas Chateauneuf for the France 2 newspaper on January 15, 2021:

The best resources are online thanks to stakeholders from www.assisesduclimat.fr

Earth oven risk

The multidisciplinary research of Will Steffen et al is to download here :

It has been observed that, for 100,000 years, the average temperature of the globe and the sea level have fluctuated according to CO2 levels of 200 to 300 ppm. Since the Anthropocene less than two centuries ago, CO2 has increased sharply to reach 410ppm * today. Scientists predict that we can still stabilize the movement, if we limit the warming to 2 ° C (at least 1.5 ° C). If we do not reduce our greenhouse gases by 40% by 2030, then the planet is heading for a chaotic, absolutely unstable operation, as shown at the top right of the curve.
* ppm = parts per million or grams per tonne.

Question of "profitability": France Strategy by its commission "Value of Climate Action" published a study in February 2019 estimating the tutelary value of a tonne of carbon at 90 € in 2020, 250 € in 2030 and 775 € in 2050, according to the report included in this illustrated page with an interview with Alain Quinet: 'https://www.strategie.gouv.fr/publications/de-laction-climat'(precision: it is well expressed in euros / tonne of CO2 eq.).

In the https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Compte_carbone#Effets_pour_l'emplo i it is estimated the creation of 50,000 jobs which could cost France 2 billion euros per year; divide these 2 billion by the value of CO2 avoided:
The 6% programmed reduction of the total of 700 million tonnes is 42 million tonnes.

Each tonne avoided would therefore cost € 48, i.e. € 42 in savings per tonne compared to the 2020 assessment of € 90 by France Stratégie.

The same wikipedia study estimates that a tonne of carbon could quickly reach 1000 € which is hardly one euro per kg of equivalent CO2.

France Strategy Report (Alain Quinet, 2019)

Less cognitive abilities

The effects of the concentration of carbon dioxide on the brain have been studied for a long time for confined environments, Joseph Allen (study by clicking here) shows that an increase from 600 to 1000 ppm generates a loss of 21% of our capacities. cognitive (memorization, reaction speed, recognition skills, etc.). Studies listed by the IPCC have calculated that we could reach 550 ppm CO2 in 2050 and 1000 in 2100 in the earth's atmosphere. We could suffer an average loss of 15% of our cognitive abilities according to Rob Hopkins who quotes them on page 79 in "What if ..." 2020, South Acts.

How much do we emit?

The High Council for the Climate produced a synthesis brilliant in June 2019 showing that total French emissions are 11t / person per year, including 40% of imported gray energy. In round figures, France emits 480 million tonnes of CO2 eq. and causes 270 t more on imported products and services, emitting outside France. The 2021 update mentions 663 million t divided into 436 locally issued, 357 imported and 130 exported.
High Council Climate Report for the general public 2021 High Climate Council Report April 2020

October 2020, the HCC publishes its dossier on imported carbon which confirms our approach to count all carbon in the purchases and services of all consumers: it recommends four levers, to encourage companies (and here we encourage companies through their customers) , encourage consumers, harmonize it with Europe and stop imported deforestation.

HCC Report October 2020

Le tableau comparatif européen est basé sur les données 2012, il est extrait du rapport HCC d'octobre 2020

Rapport du Giec HCC building report

It is the Hawaiian observatory of Mauna Loa which most precisely follows the evolutions of carbon dioxide in the global atmosphere, the record was reached in April 2020 with 416 ppm according to thestudy Weather-Contact. Canadian satellite tracks methane emissions in real time, feeding vivid images of the globe according to Futura-Sciences.

The 1.5 ° C precipice before our eyes
According to Chancel and Piketty, the richest 50% in France emit 20t / year against 4t for the less rich (2013 values to be increased by 10%)
The table shows the transport emissions (2010 values) based on the differences between suburbs, towns and countryside, with a ratio of 1 to 3 between the poorest and the richer (Extract from Economic Alternatives). It is interesting to note that rural areas emit a little less than the large suburbs. Source SOeS.
According to Chancel and Piketty, the richest 50% in France emit 20t / year against 4t for the less rich (2013 values to be increased by 10%)

What about at the global level? Let us quote the study of Corinne Le Quéré et al of the Global Carbon Project
here in pdf (the most complete file that we know of):
The same file shows the forecast evolutions according to different scenarios compiled by the IPCC:

The distribution of consumption has been reassessed by the High Council for the Climate in a file presented at www.assiseduclimat.fr (file available below), two explicit graphs emerge on the responsibility of imports in our overall French footprint:

European data

Eurostat periodically publishes the latest statistical information on the European Union, to be consulted at https://www.touteleurope.eu/actualite/climat-la-reduction-des-emissions-de-co2-en-europe.html
Climat européen

Carbon sink

Let us also quote the study published by Nature, coordinated by Philippe CIAIS, to be uploaded here, to fully understand the importance of carbon sinks and the gravity of global evolution.

Carbon sinks

Currency

Apart from climate issues, we must cite the economists of money and in particular Ludovic Desmedt who analyzes the currents and risks in the debate between cash and chip cards, in the excellent program of France Culture:
The end of cash?
Mathilde Szuba's thesis

As developed in the remark 44, the economist Mathilde Szuba studied, for her thesis, the experiments carried out in different countries, her interview in Socialter is documented and stimulating to show the feasibility ...
Article Socialter
If we do not act against climate change, nearly 20% of the earth could become difficult to live in 2070, with temperatures approaching those currently observed in the Sahara. Nearly 3.5 billion people could end up in these areas, mainly located in developing countries such as India, Nigeria but also Guyana. It's here conclusion of the study to click opposite, reported by Novethic.

A great team around the friend Vianney composed a set of proposals to broaden the audience of the carbon account principle, we invite you to study the powerpoint which was presented on November 10 (and renewed on March 11) at the National Shifters Meeting, below: (their 184-page report has been proofread in the National Shifters Office since June, validated for November 2021).

A complementary Powerpoint to expand
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